Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.893807 3.438445 4.045320 4.769919 5.609695 6.550422 7.682091
2025-07-06 1.990053 2.686385 3.552505 4.700900 6.174440 7.991623 10.390845
2025-07-13 1.603343 2.408255 3.504669 5.087184 7.288553 10.214117 14.361752
2025-07-20 1.280114 2.113514 3.342775 5.251597 8.094853 12.116593 18.162139
2025-07-27 1.062581 1.908289 3.246200 5.459715 8.955360 14.166983 22.393343
2025-08-03 0.862667 1.677229 3.053030 5.466329 9.485941 15.769429 26.129172
2025-08-10 0.679237 1.427067 2.772753 5.268967 9.641215 16.785366 29.049068
2025-08-17 0.529785 1.200883 2.485036 4.998299 9.615475 17.480004 31.497047
2025-08-24 0.436346 1.060837 2.324853 4.921553 9.899990 18.698140 34.906090
2025-08-31 0.364511 0.947885 2.193583 4.872325 10.216891 19.990033 38.549986
2025-09-07 0.327887 0.904564 2.194733 5.080753 11.038700 22.254045 44.106887
2025-09-14 0.282612 0.829219 2.112542 5.101795 11.490808 23.875256 48.636923
2025-09-21 0.241205 0.754718 2.022040 5.099103 11.912146 25.515347 53.428201
2025-09-28 0.204939 0.684267 1.927851 5.074259 12.287260 27.112017 58.308107
2025-10-05 0.196902 0.691471 2.025043 5.507206 13.703588 30.921899 67.848156
2025-10-12 0.177710 0.660340 2.018685 5.691058 14.589059 33.732182 75.639788
2025-10-19 0.162489 0.637310 2.029169 5.917559 15.597875 36.891631 84.405402
2025-10-26 0.141330 0.588403 1.958668 5.925683 16.095288 39.005436 91.180400
2025-11-02 0.116620 0.518920 1.814233 5.713742 16.034122 39.891962 95.433309
2025-11-09 0.094052 0.448906 1.651787 5.422604 15.734734 40.210365 98.477907
2025-11-16 0.080171 0.407422 1.568492 5.340042 15.953244 41.726232 104.278177
2025-11-23 0.068982 0.372784 1.499483 5.287066 16.241190 43.428043 110.631109
2025-11-30 0.064356 0.365227 1.520801 5.511416 17.301913 47.063996 121.683075